Steven Greenidge

TRREB: Strong Population Growth Driving Rental Demand in Q3 2023

TORONTO, ONTARIO, October 26, 2023 – Demand for and supply of rental condominium apartments continued to grow in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) during the third quarter of 2023, as reported by REALTORS® through TRREB’s MLS® System.

Over 14,400 condominium apartments were leased through TRREB’s MLS® System in the third quarter of 2023, an increase of almost eight per cent compared to Q3 2022. Over the same period, the supply of units for rent was up by more than 22 per cent.

“Strong population growth and high borrowing costs continued to drive demand for GTA rental housing in the third quarter. Would-be first-time buyers, who have seen affordability erode over the past year-and-a-half due to high mortgage rates, have remained in the rental market. Many new permanent and temporary residents have also turned to the rental market for housing. Renters can expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future, underpinning the need for a sustainable pipeline of rental housing supply,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.

The average lease rate for a one-bedroom condominium apartment in Q3 2023 was $2,633 – up 6.1 per cent compared to Q2 2022. The average lease rate for a two-bedroom condominium apartment in Q3 2023 was $3,430 – up 7.8 per cent compared to Q2 2022.

“The supply of units for rent has increased at a faster pace than rental transactions over the past year. Many investor-owned units have been listed for rent, in response to very strong rent growth and, quite possibly, the actual or potential introduction of tighter regulations surrounding vacant units and short-term rentals. However, despite a better-supplied market, competition between renters has remained strong enough to sustain above-inflation rent increases,” saidTRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

TRREB: HIGHER BORROWING COSTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT HOUSING MARKET IN AUGUST

TORONTO, ONTARIO, September 6, 2023 – Higher borrowing costs, continued uncertainty about the economy and Bank of Canada decision making, and the constrained supply of listings resulted in fewer home sales in August 2023 compared to August 2022. The average selling price remained virtually unchanged over the same period. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales and average price edged lower.

“Looking forward, we know there will be solid demand for housing – both ownership and rental – in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe. Record immigration levels alone will assure this. In the short term, we will likely continue to see some volatility in terms of sales and home prices, as buyers and sellers wait for more certainty on the direction of borrowing costs and the overall economy,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,294 sales in August 2023 – down by 5.2 per cent compared to August 2022. New listings were up by 16.2 per cent year-over-over, providing some relief on the supply front, but year-to-date listings are still down substantially compared to the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted sales were down slightly by one per cent month-over-month compared to July 2023, while new listings were up slightly by 1.3 per cent compared to July.

“More balanced market conditions this summer compared to the tighter spring market resulted in selling prices hovering at last year’s levels and dipping slightly compared to July. As interest rates continued to increase in May, after a pause in the winter and early spring, many buyers have had to adjust their offers in order to qualify for higher monthly payments. Not all sellers have chosen to take lower than expected selling prices, resulting in fewer sales,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark for August 2023 was up by 2.5 per cent year-over- year. The average selling price was also up, but by less than one per cent to $1,082,496 over the same timeframe. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was virtually unchanged and the average price edged lower by 1.6 per cent.

“While higher interest rates have certainly impacted affordability, the prospect of higher taxes will also hit households’ balance sheets, especially younger buyers with limited savings. With the City of Toronto moving to raise the municipal land transfer tax (MLTT) rate on properties over $3 million as a revenue tool, it must also consider helping first-time home buyers struggling to enter the market by adjusting their tax rebate threshold to reflect today’s higher home prices,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

“All three levels of government need to be focused on the key issue impacting affordability in the GTA: lack of supply. Right now, there continues to be a policy mismatch between population growth through immigration and temporary migration and bringing online enough housing to accommodate this population growth. If we can’t house newcomers, they will look elsewhere, and Canada and the GTA will lose its competitive edge on the global stage,” continued DiMichele.

“Home sales continued to be above last year’s levels in July, which suggests that many households have adjusted to higher borrowing costs. With that being said, it does appear that the sales momentum that we experienced earlier in the spring has stalled somewhat since the Bank of Canada restarted its rate tightening cycle in June. Compounding the impact of higher rates has been the persistent lack of listings for people to purchase compared to previous years,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,250 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in July 2023, representing a 7.8 per cent increase compared to July 2022. Over the same period, new listings were also up, but by a greater annual rate of 11.5 per cent. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 1.3 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was also up by 4.2 per cent to $1,118,374 over the same timeframe.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the number of sales trended lower for the second straight month, whereas new listings trended upward. The seasonally adjusted average selling price edged lower while the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark edged higher.

“Uncertainty surrounding the direction of borrowing costs, jobs and the overall economy has impacted home sales over the last two months. Over the long term, the demand for ownership housing will remain strong on the back of record population growth. However, many homebuyers will continue to be on the sidelines in the short term until the direction of monetary policy and the economy becomes clearer,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“We continue to suffer from a misalignment in public policy as it relates to housing. The federal government is targeting record levels of immigration for the foreseeable future, but we have seen very little tangible progress in creating more ownership and rental housing to accommodate this growth. Population growth is imperative for economic development; however, this growth will be unsustainable if people can’t find an affordable place to live. All three levels of government need to be on the same page to fix this problem,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

LACK OF LISTINGS LED TO TIGHTER GTA MARKET CONDITIONS IN JUNE

TRREB Urges Governments to Accelerate Action on Housing Supply

TORONTO, ONTARIO, July 6, 2023 – Home sales and the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in June 2023 remained above last year’s levels. Seasonally adjusted sales dipped on a month-over-month basis. The seasonally adjusted average selling price and the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark were up compared to the previous month.

“The demand for ownership housing is stronger than last year, despite higher borrowing costs. With this said, home sales were hampered last month by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s outlook on inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, a persistent lack of inventory likely sidelined some willing buyers because they couldn't find a home meeting their needs. Simply put, you can't buy what is not available,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 7,481 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in June 2023 – up 16.5 per cent compared to June 2022. The number of listings was down by three per cent over the same period.

The year-over-year increase in sales coupled with the decrease in new listings mean market conditions were tighter this past June relative to the same period last year. The average selling price was up by 3.2 per cent to $1,182,120. The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was still down by 1.9 per cent on a year- over-year basis – the lowest annual rate of decline in 2023. On a month-over-month basis the seasonally adjusted average price and MLS® HPI Composite benchmark were up.

“A resilient economy, tight labour market and record population growth kept home sales well above last year’s lows. Looking forward, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this month and its guidance on inflation and borrowing costs for the remainder of 2023 will help us understand how much sales and price will recover beyond current levels,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“GTA municipalities continue to lag in bringing new housing online at a pace sufficient to make up for the current deficit and keep up with record population growth. Leaders at all levels of government, including the new mayor-elect of Toronto, have committed to rectifying the housing supply crisis. We need to see these commitments coming to fruition immediately, or we will continue to fall further behind each month,” stressed TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

“In addition to the impact of the listing shortage, housing affordability is also hampered on an ongoing basis by taxation and fees associated with home sales and construction as well as the general level of taxation impacting households today. Going forward, we need to look at all of the factors influencing the household balance sheet and people’s ability to house themselves,” continued DiMichele.